2025 Global Energy Market Trend Analysis
2025年全球能源市场趋势分析
Introduction
The global energy market in 2025 is undergoing a rapid transition toward cleaner sources and more open markets. Countries worldwide are increasing renewable energy deployment to meet climate goals and ensure energy security. In Asia, nations such as Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Japan, and China are at different stages of this transition. This whitepaper analyzes key trends in these countries around 2025, focusing on three critical areas: the evolution of renewable energy in the energy mix, electricity market reforms, and regional practices and prospects for waste-to-energy (WtE) incineration. Drawing on authoritative data from bodies like the IEA, national energy agencies, JOGMEC, EGAT, and China’s National Energy Administration, we examine how each country’s energy landscape is changing and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead. The report is presented in both English and Chinese, with a web-based format allowing easy navigation by section and an interactive comparison of data through charts. Readers can toggle between languages and download the full report as a PDF. Below, we present our findings for each focus area and country.
Renewable Energy Development Trends
Thailand
Thailand’s power generation remains dominated by natural gas (about 57.5% of the mix in 2025). Renewable energy plays a growing but still modest role. By 2025, renewables (including solar, biomass, wind, and hydro) are projected to account for roughly 12.9% of Thailand’s electricity output. In absolute terms, installed renewable capacity is expected to reach ~15.7 GW in 2025 and further grow to 21.4 GW by 2030. Solar PV is a major driver of this growth, alongside emerging segments like floating solar and biomass. Thailand’s latest Power Development Plan (PDP 2024) sets an ambitious goal: over 51% of electricity generation from renewables by 2037, a sharp increase from the ~12.9% level in 2025. Achieving this will require accelerated deployment of wind and solar and investments in grid upgrades and energy storage to integrate these variable sources. Overall, Thailand’s renewable energy structure is gradually evolving from heavy gas reliance toward a more diversified mix in line with its carbon neutrality 2050 pledge.
Vietnam
Vietnam has experienced a rapid surge in renewables, often described as a “renewable energy revolution.” By 2021, solar and wind power reached 10.5% and 1% of Vietnam’s electricity generation, respectively, on top of Vietnam’s extensive hydropower (which already supplies a significant share). This progress vaulted Vietnam to a leading position in ASEAN for renewable generation share. Looking toward 2025, Vietnam’s Power Development Plan VIII (approved 2023) aims to further boost renewables. The plan targets renewable (non-hydro) sources to contribute about 28%–36% of electricity by 2030. While 2025-specific figures are not explicitly stated, the trend is an increasing share year-on-year as large solar farms and wind projects come online after the 2020 FIT-driven boom. Vietnam is leveraging its high solar potential (e.g., over 17 GW installed capacity) and significant wind resources, including ambitious offshore wind plans. By 2030, Vietnam expects at least ~21.9 GW of onshore wind, 6 GW offshore, and 12.8 GW solar capacity. This would make renewables (including hydro) a cornerstone of its power supply. In summary, around 2025 Vietnam’s renewable energy structure is shifting from predominantly hydro to a more balanced mix with substantial solar and wind, positioning the country to meet its goal of roughly one-third renewable generation by 2030.
Malaysia
Malaysia’s renewable energy uptake has been moderate but is gathering pace. As of 2022, renewables (chiefly hydropower) accounted for about 18.4% of Malaysia’s power generation. Solar and other non-hydro sources are still in their infancy (solar and wind made up only ~2% of generation in recent years). The government has set clear targets through the Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER): 31% of installed capacity from renewables by 2025, and 40% by 2035. This roughly translates to a mid-20s percentage of generation by 2025, considering ongoing grid additions. To reach these goals, Malaysia is expanding large-scale solar auctions, promoting distributed solar via net metering, and exploring bioenergy from palm oil waste. Hydro remains important (notably in Sarawak), but most large hydro potential is already utilized. By 2025, we expect Malaysia’s power mix to include a higher share of solar PV and possibly new small hydros, edging renewables upward. The planned increase from ~18% to the 20–25% range of generation indicates Malaysia’s commitment, though coal and gas still dominate the supply in the mid-term. Overall, Malaysia’s renewable energy structure is evolving gradually, with stronger growth anticipated later toward the 2030s in line with the 40% target.
Myanmar
Myanmar’s energy profile is unique due to its historically high reliance on hydropower. A significant portion of Myanmar’s electricity has traditionally come from large hydro dams, meaning “renewables” (hydro) already form a majority of its power generation. However, excluding big hydro, the contribution of modern renewables like solar or wind was less than 1% in 2020. The government had plans to raise this to about 12% of the energy mix by 2025, mainly through solar projects. Indeed, Myanmar saw some utility-scale solar tenders in 2020 for around 1 GW of capacity, though progress slowed after political upheaval in 2021. By 2025, a few hundred megawatts of solar are expected to be operational (recent data show ~216 MW solar installed by end of 2024). Nonetheless, electricity access remains a pressing issue (only ~50% electrification as of 2020). Thus, Myanmar’s focus is on expanding generation capacity and grid connectivity. Hydropower and natural gas plants continue to be built, while renewables growth (beyond hydro) lags due to instability and limited investment. In summary, Myanmar’s renewable structure around 2025 is still dominated by hydropower, with slow inroads by solar energy. Achieving significant renewable diversification will depend on improved political and investment conditions.
Japan
Japan has markedly accelerated renewable energy deployment since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. In 2022, renewables provided about 26% of Japan’s electricity generation, up from ~10% a decade earlier, thanks to extensive solar PV installations and steady hydro and biomass contributions. The government’s Strategic Energy Plan targets renewables to reach 36–38% of the power mix by 2030. By the mid-2020s, Japan is on track toward that goal: solar PV capacity alone was ~79 GW in 2022, expected to exceed 100 GW by 2030. Offshore wind is a new focus, with a goal of 10 GW by 2030 (from near zero in 2022). In 2025, we anticipate renewables (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass) to supply around 30% of Japan’s electricity as nuclear restarts and fossil fuel use are gradually reduced. Notably, solar is now ubiquitous (both utility-scale and rooftop) and regional grids are being upgraded to handle more renewable input. Japan’s renewable energy structure in 2025 is thus significantly more robust than in previous years, with solar PV as the leading source, supplemented by wind (especially onshore for now), hydro (~8% of generation), and biomass. The nation’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 and recent green transformation policies are driving this continued growth.
China
China is the world’s largest renewable energy producer and continues to break records. In 2020, renewables (including hydro) made up about 28.8% of China’s power generation. By 2025, that figure is set to rise substantially. The 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy targets ~33% of electricity generation from renewables in 2025, with non-hydro renewables (wind, solar, biomass) reaching 18% (up from 11.4% in 2020). This is backed by an enormous build-out of capacity: China likely surpassed 1,200 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2025, achieving its 2030 goal early. Notably, renewable capacity is to exceed 50% of total installed power capacity by 2025 – a remarkable milestone. In practice, this means China’s incremental power demand growth from now on is mostly met by renewables; indeed, authorities aimed for at least 50% of new demand to be served by renewables. By 2025, China’s power mix sees significant contributions from wind (onshore and offshore), solar PV (by 2026 China could have 1,000 GW of solar alone), and hydropower (China has the world’s largest hydro fleet). The renewable share is rising fast, though coal still provides a large remaining portion. In summary, China’s renewable energy structure around 2025 is one of rapid growth and scale: a transition from a coal-heavy system towards a cleaner mix where renewables play a central and ever-increasing role in electricity generation.
Electricity Market Structure Changes
Thailand
Thailand’s power market has traditionally been state-led, but it features significant private sector participation through the IPP (Independent Power Producer) program. By 2025, private producers will own about 54.8% of Thailand’s installed generation capacity, indicating a partial liberalization within a single-buyer model (EGAT remains the sole wholesale buyer and controls transmission). While no full wholesale competition exists yet, Thailand has encouraged Small Power Producers (SPPs) and Very Small Power Producers (VSPPs) to diversify the market. Recent policy moves point to gradual reforms: for instance, regulatory pilots for direct PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) between generators and large consumers are being explored. These pilots would allow industrial users to procure renewable electricity directly, outside the traditional utility arrangements. The retail market for most consumers, however, remains regulated under the Metropolitan and Provincial Electricity Authorities. In essence, the key trend is a cautious shift toward more competition and diversification (more players and distributed generation) while the overall market structure (with EGAT as system operator and major generator) stays intact. Market reforms in Thailand thus focus on improving efficiency and integrating renewables, rather than a radical restructuring.
Vietnam
Vietnam is in the midst of transitioning from a vertically integrated monopoly (state-owned EVN) to a more market-oriented power sector. Up to 2025, EVN still dominates transmission and distribution and acts as the only buyer of electricity in the wholesale market. However, significant reforms have been underway: Vietnam launched a competitive generation market in 2012 and a pilot wholesale electricity market (VWEM) around 2019. Plans for retail competition are slated for the late 2020s. Importantly, Vietnam’s government passed an amended Electricity Law effective Feb 1, 2025, which creates a stronger legal framework for clean energy and private sector involvement. This new law explicitly supports Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPAs), enabling renewable energy producers to sell electricity directly to corporate consumers via the grid. A DPPA pilot scheme (2022–2024) was already underway, anticipating these legal changes. Thus, by 2025 Vietnam’s market shows these trends: independent power producers (including many foreign-invested solar farms and wind parks) are supplying EVN through PPAs, partial wholesale competition exists, and nascent direct trading mechanisms are emerging for big customers. The overall structure is still largely controlled by EVN, but the door is opening for more competition and private investment, aiming to improve efficiency and meet surging power demand.
Malaysia
Malaysia’s electricity market has been characterized by a single-buyer model on Peninsular Malaysia (with Tenaga Nasional Berhad, TNB, as the integrated utility handling generation, grid, and retail). In recent years, the country has begun moving toward liberalization in a controlled manner. By 2024, the government introduced the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS) to grant third-party access to the grid. Under CRESS, new renewable generators can sell power directly to commercial and industrial consumers using TNB’s grid, bypassing the traditional single-buyer arrangement. This is a major step toward a competitive market and is expected to lower barriers for renewable energy developers and give large consumers more choices. Additionally, Malaysia has implemented initiatives like the Grid Connect scheme and opened opportunities for retail competition in the form of retail licensees (though TNB still supplies the vast majority of customers). The Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) reforms also include plans for a future wholesale market. By 2025, TNB’s transmission and distribution were legally unbundled into separate subsidiaries, improving transparency. In summary, Malaysia’s power market is in transition: still largely centralized under TNB’s operations, but with new regulatory reforms enabling competition at the margins (especially for green energy procurement). These changes reflect a balancing act between maintaining reliability and introducing market efficiencies as Malaysia aims for net-zero emissions by 2050.
Myanmar
Myanmar’s electricity market remains state-driven and faces significant challenges. The state-owned Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) and Electricity Supply Enterprise (ESE) have historically controlled generation and distribution, respectively. Prior to 2021, Myanmar had begun to attract IPPs (e.g., gas-fired plants and solar farms under build-operate-transfer contracts) and was considering power sector reforms to expand electrification. However, the political instability since 2021 has stalled structural reforms. By 2025, the market is essentially not liberalized – the government sets tariffs and manages power purchase agreements. Frequent power shortages and financial constraints in the sector are pressing issues. The primary “reform” focus has been on restoring and expanding electricity access (with electrification targeted at 100% by 2030 from ~50% in 2020). Private investments in generation (from foreign and local companies) do continue under government contracts, indicating a partial IPP model similar to other ASEAN countries, but there is no competitive market or independent regulator driving pricing. In summary, Myanmar’s power sector structure in 2025 is a traditional single-buyer system under government control. Any future market-oriented reforms will depend on political developments and rebuilding investor confidence in the country’s regulatory environment.
Japan
Japan has one of the most fully reformed electricity markets in Asia. After decades of regional monopolies, Japan undertook comprehensive liberalization following the 2011 energy crisis. By 2016, the retail electricity market was fully opened to competition, allowing hundreds of new retailers to offer power contracts to consumers. In 2020, Japan completed legal unbundling of transmission and distribution from the major utilities, meaning the former regional utility companies (like TEPCO, KEPCO, etc.) had to separate their grid operations into independent companies. Now, an independent system operator oversees transmission, and the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) facilitates wholesale trading. These reforms have expanded consumer choice and driven innovation (e.g., renewable electricity plans, dynamic pricing). By 2025, roughly 20% or more of households have switched from the incumbent utility to a new supplier. However, challenges remain: recent spikes in fuel prices saw dozens of new retailers exit the market, highlighting issues in market design (e.g., balancing market risk). The government’s 2025 “Draft Review” of the power system emphasizes ensuring capacity adequacy (with a capacity market) and grid stability in a fully liberalized context. Overall, Japan’s key trend is a mature competitive market structure – one that continues to be refined to balance competition with reliability, especially as renewable penetration increases. Consumers in Japan can freely choose their provider, and generators compete in wholesale markets, marking a major shift from a decade ago.
China
China is gradually transforming its electricity sector from a centrally planned system to a market-based system, albeit with Chinese characteristics. Historically, generation and distribution were managed by state-owned enterprises (the big five generating companies and grid companies like State Grid). In recent years, China has piloted regional power exchanges and direct trading. By 2025, China is on track to establish an initial national unified power market. This means inter-provincial power trading is being expanded so that electricity can be bought and sold across regions more efficiently, reducing curtailment of renewables and optimizing resource use. The government announced in 2022 a goal to have the national power market framework in place by the end of 2025. Already, a significant portion of power (especially from renewables and surplus provincial generation) is traded through medium- and long-term contracts and spot market pilots. Electricity tariffs for industrial and commercial users have been liberalized to fluctuate within a band, reflecting market supply-demand rather than fixed rates. At the retail level, most consumers still pay regulated tariffs, but large users can engage in bilateral contracts or purchase via market. Another trend is the growth of green power trading platforms, where consumers voluntarily buy renewable electricity or certificates. In summary, China’s market reforms are accelerating: a transition from strict government allocation of power to a hybrid system where market mechanisms set prices and dispatch for a growing share of electricity. The end-goal is a more integrated, competitive national market that will support China’s massive renewable integration and ensure supply security.
Waste-to-Energy: Regional Practices and Prospects
Thailand
Like many countries, Thailand faces mounting municipal waste challenges. The Thai government has turned to waste-to-energy (WtE) incineration as a potential solution that can reduce landfill volume while generating electricity. In 2022, Thailand announced plans to build 79 new WtE plants in the coming years, totaling about 619 MW of capacity. This aggressive rollout is part of a national agenda to manage waste and cut greenhouse gas emissions from open dumping. As of mid-2020s, a few WtE facilities are already in operation (including Bangkok’s first 9.8 MW incinerator at Nong Khaem opened in 2016), and more are under construction. The development potential is high, especially in urban areas where landfill space is scarce. Key bottlenecks include public acceptance and environmental concerns – local communities have protested some proposed incinerators over fears of air pollution (dioxins, etc.) and proximity to residences. Technologically, Thailand often relies on imported designs (e.g., Japanese and Chinese incineration technology) to ensure emissions meet standards. Going forward, Thailand’s WtE prospects are strong if it can implement advanced pollution control and integrate waste segregation (to improve calorific value of waste fuel). The goal is to use WtE to complement recycling efforts: incinerators with energy recovery are slated to play a larger role in Thailand’s waste management and renewable energy strategy, provided community and environmental issues are properly managed.
Vietnam
Vietnam is beginning to explore WtE incineration amid a growing waste crisis in its cities. With over 67,000 tons of municipal solid waste generated per day nationwide and many landfills near capacity, the government sees WtE as an appealing option. However, progress has been relatively slow. By 2025, Vietnam has roughly 5 operational WtE plants that produce electricity (including a 7.5 MW plant in Can Tho, and smaller facilities in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City), and about 10 additional projects in the pipeline. The development potential is significant given the waste volumes, but technical and financial bottlenecks persist. High capital costs mean WtE electricity in Vietnam is more expensive than the grid average, requiring government support. Indeed, processing waste via incineration can cost ~$50 per ton, versus ~$20 for landfilling, which is a hurdle for poorer provinces. Technical challenges include the need for better waste segregation – currently, low separation leads to wet waste that lowers incinerator efficiency and causes pollution control difficulties. Vietnam’s existing WtE plants have highlighted the importance of robust emission controls: there are concerns about air pollutants (dioxins, NOx, etc.) and some plants faced opposition due to environmental fears. In the coming years, Vietnam is working on stricter regulations (the Environmental Protection Law 2020 mandates waste sorting at source by 2025) which should improve WtE feedstock quality. Overall, WtE in Vietnam holds promise to alleviate landfill overflows and generate power, but it will require careful balancing of costs, technology, and environmental safeguards to reach its potential.
Malaysia
Malaysia has traditionally disposed of waste in landfills, but it is now turning to waste-to-energy incineration as part of its “zero-waste” ambition. The national Housing and Local Government Ministry plans to establish six WtE plants across Malaysia by 2025. One flagship project is the 25-30 MW WtE facility under construction in Jeram, Selangor, which will process several thousand tons of waste per day. WtE is seen as a sustainable solution to Malaysia’s solid waste problem, which amounts to roughly 14 million tonnes per year. These modern incinerators are designed as Integrated Waste Treatment Facilities, combining material recovery (recycling sorting) with incineration to reduce landfill disposal to a minimum. The prospects look positive from a technical standpoint – WtE can significantly cut the volume of waste and generate renewable power. However, Malaysia faces notable public resistance and regulatory hurdles. Local residents and environmental groups have raised concerns about new incinerators: for example, the proposed Batu Arang WtE plant in Selangor has met community protests over its location and potential health risks. Transparency and public education will be key to address the “Not In My Backyard” syndrome. Additionally, ensuring strict emission standards (for example, EU-level dioxin and particulate controls) will be critical for public acceptance. In summary, Malaysia is at the cusp of a WtE rollout; the success of these projects will depend on effective stakeholder engagement and demonstrating that modern WtE facilities can operate safely. If done right, WtE could become a preferred method for waste management in Malaysia’s urban centers, complementing recycling initiatives and reducing dependence on landfills.
Myanmar
Myanmar is only beginning its journey with waste-to-energy. The country’s first pilot WtE plant was inaugurated in Yangon in 2017 – a modest facility capable of processing 60 tons of waste per day and generating 0.76 MW of electricity. This project, developed with Japanese cooperation, demonstrated the basic feasibility of WtE in Myanmar’s context. Given Myanmar’s rapid urbanization (e.g., Yangon’s swelling population), waste management is an emerging issue, and WtE offers a way to reduce open dumping and provide power to the grid. By 2025, beyond the Yangon plant, plans exist for a larger WtE project in Mandalay in partnership with a South Korean company, though its status is uncertain amid Myanmar’s political turmoil. The potential for WtE is relatively untapped – most waste is still landfilled or informally dumped, causing pollution. Key bottlenecks include financing (Myanmar’s economic situation makes large infrastructure funding difficult without international support) and technical expertise (ensuring plants meet environmental standards). Additionally, waste in Myanmar often has high organic content and moisture, which can reduce incineration efficiency; improving waste collection and segregation will be important. In the short term, Myanmar may focus on smaller-scale WtE or waste-to-biogas projects that fit local needs. Overall, while WtE could play a beneficial role in Myanmar’s future, significant political and economic challenges must be overcome before it sees widespread adoption in the country.
Japan
Japan is a global leader in waste-to-energy utilization, born out of necessity due to limited landfill space. The country has over 1,000 waste incineration plants, many of which recover energy; combined, these plants generate around 4.2 GW of electricity. In Japan, virtually all municipal waste that is not recycled is incinerated in facilities with stringent emission controls. This includes dozens of large-scale WtE plants in major cities (Tokyo’s incinerators, for example, also provide district heating). The practice is widely accepted by the public because Japan has continuously improved pollution control technology – concerns over dioxins, which peaked in the 1990s, were addressed by better combustion and flue-gas treatment regulations. By 2025, Japan’s WtE infrastructure is mature: the focus is on incremental improvements, such as increasing power generation efficiency of plants (through high-temperature steam turbines) and further reducing emissions and carbon footprint. One challenge is that incinerating plastic wastes does emit CO2; Japan is exploring ways to utilize waste heat more effectively and even carbon capture at WtE facilities. Another trend is regional cooperation – some smaller towns jointly build WtE plants to handle combined waste volumes. Overall, Japan’s WtE experience shows the viability of large-scale, long-term integration of waste incineration into the energy system. The prospects remain strong, as WtE will continue to be a key component of Japan’s waste management strategy, simultaneously contributing a small but stable share of electricity supply and helping keep cities clean.
China
China has experienced a dramatic boom in waste-to-energy construction over the past decade. In 2011, China had only about 130 waste incineration plants; by the early 2020s it had over 900 (around 927 plants as of 2020). This expansion is part of a national drive to treat municipal solid waste and reduce reliance on huge landfills. By the end of 2022, China’s total daily waste incineration capacity reached about 1 million tonnes, achieving the government’s 2025 target three years ahead of schedule. These WtE plants are mainly concentrated in densely populated eastern provinces, and many use modern technology with electricity generation and emissions treatment. The development potential in China is massive – some analyses project over 500 million tons annual incineration capacity by the late 2020s. However, with rapid growth come new challenges. Interestingly, improved recycling and waste sorting in some cities have led to shortages of burnable waste for certain incinerators, reducing their utilization rates. This indicates a need to balance recycling programs with WtE operations. Additionally, air pollution control is a constant concern: China has implemented stricter dioxin and pollutant limits for WtE plants, and there is increasing public scrutiny of these facilities (though generally less opposition than seen in some other countries, due in part to strong government backing and public awareness of the waste problem). Going forward, China is expected to continue expanding WtE, especially in smaller cities that are only now developing such infrastructure. The country is also exploring next-generation technologies like waste gasification. In summary, China’s WtE sector in 2025 is robust and rapidly growing, serving as a critical piece in the nation’s urban waste management and providing a growing contribution to the energy mix in the form of renewable (biogenic) electricity.
Renewable Electricity Share by 2025 (Projected)
Number of Waste-to-Energy Plants (approx. 2020-2022)
*Chart data based on sources and estimates from the report. Actual values may vary.
Conclusion
Across Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Japan, and China, the energy landscape around 2025 is marked by a clear pivot towards cleaner energy and more modern markets, albeit at different paces. Renewable energy is steadily increasing its share in each country’s power mix. Vietnam and China stand out for rapid renewable deployment (with Vietnam’s solar boom and China meeting targets early), while Thailand and Malaysia show gradual progress and Japan pushes towards ambitious 2030 goals. Myanmar lags due to broader challenges but recognizes the long-term importance of renewables. In terms of power market structure, we observe a regional trend of liberalization: Japan’s market is fully competitive; Malaysia and Vietnam are implementing gradual reforms to introduce competition and private sector roles; Thailand is cautiously opening parts of its market; China is building a unique Chinese-style electricity market to enhance efficiency; and Myanmar remains largely state-controlled for now. These reforms aim to improve supply security, attract investment (especially in renewables), and offer consumers more choices, all while ensuring stable and affordable power. Lastly, waste-to-energy incineration is emerging as a valuable component of the energy and environmental strategy. Developed economies like Japan have successfully integrated WtE at scale, demonstrating its feasibility. China and Thailand are rapidly expanding WtE capacity to address waste and energy needs, whereas Malaysia and Vietnam are at an earlier stage, working to launch new projects amid public and technical challenges. If managed with proper environmental controls and community engagement, WtE offers a win-win by reducing waste and contributing to energy supply. In conclusion, the 2025 outlook for these Asian countries is one of transformation: moving towards greener energy systems and more open markets, driven by both policy commitments (like net-zero targets) and practical needs (such as urban waste management). The progress made and lessons learned in this period will shape the next phase of the global energy transition in Asia and beyond.
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