火电、生物质、垃圾焚烧等电站正迎来数字化与智能化转型。即使在新能源装机快速增长的背景下,这些传统电厂仍将在较长时期内担当重要的“压舱石”角色。因此,借助人工智能(AI)和物联网等技术,实现电厂运行优化和智慧运维已成为必然趋势。智能发电技术被视为未来电力行业的重点发展领域,对于提高能源利用效率、促进能源结构转型、增强电网稳定与安全、实现节能减排等具有重要意义 news.gmw.cn。这不仅是实现“双碳”目标、推动能源转型的战略选择,也将显著提升电厂的经济效益和运行可靠性。
Power generation facilities – including coal-fired, biomass, and waste-to-energy plants – are undergoing a digital transformation with AI and smart technologies at the core. These conventional plants remain critical to energy supply for years to come, and leveraging AI-driven solutions is key to improving efficiency, flexibility, and emissions performance. AI is revolutionizing power plant operations by helping operators optimize processes, reduce emissions, and prevent costly failures. By analyzing vast real-time data streams, AI models can detect anomalies, fine-tune fuel combustion, and enhance overall performance. Industry estimates indicate that AI-driven analytics can cut maintenance costs by up to 30% and boost equipment availability by around 20%, greatly improving plant economics and reliability m.sohu.com. In this report, we explore how AI and intelligent devices are being applied in core power plant equipment, the development of smart sensors and predictive maintenance systems, the landscape of key vendors and their latest products, forecasts for the next five years of technological trends and their impact on efficiency, as well as procurement recommendations and potential risks.
发电机及旋转机械的智能监测也是一大趋势。现代电站配备大量传感器监测振动、温度、转速、轴承油位等参数,AI算法可实时分析这些数据,识别异常模式,提前预警可能的故障。例如,通过训练模型学习发电机定子绕组温度和振动的正常模式,一旦出现偏离即刻报警,可防范绕组过热或轴系不平衡等严重故障。在大型汽轮机组,AI结合声学和振动信号诊断隐患,实现预测性维护(Predictive Maintenance),将重大设备故障的风险降至最低。这种智能监测使设备**非计划停机时间减少30%–40%**已在实际中得到验证sas.com。烟气处理系统方面,AI有助于精细控制脱硫、脱硝装置:传统上,由于锅炉燃烧工况和脱硫反应存在时滞、煤质多变且工艺耦合复杂,脱硫剂加入量难以精确控制sohu.com。AI模型通过融合机理模型与实时数据,预测烟气中SO₂生成量,并智能分配炉内石灰石和炉后喷射的脱硫剂比例,以秒级频率调整投加率 sohu.com。某电厂应用的AI脱硫控制实现了>96%的自动投运率,SO₂排放稳定控制在20±10 mg/Nm³范围内,同时将脱硫剂消耗降低约8%,单台机组每年节省石灰石约4万吨,节约费用约人民币200万元sohu.com。这表明AI不仅保障了超低排放达标,更大幅提升了烟气治理的经济性和自动化水平。
Generators and rotating machinery are also benefitting from AI-driven monitoring. A network of smart sensors (measuring vibration, temperature, pressure, etc.) streams health data from turbines and generators. AI anomaly detection models continuously analyze these signals to catch subtle deviations that human operators might miss, such as an incipient bearing vibration issue or slight overheating of a generator winding. Early warning of such anomalies enables predictive maintenance actions that prevent unplanned outages. In fact, AI-based condition monitoring has been shown to reduce equipment downtime by an estimated 35–45% in some deployments. Meanwhile, in flue gas clean-up systems (FGD and SCR units), AI optimizes reagent usage and emission control. Because flue gas treatment involves complex time lags and coupling – for example, sulfur content in coal can vary and SO₂ removal has a delayed response – conventional control often cannot precisely meter limestone or ammonia injection. AI solutions address this by combining physical process models with real-time sensor data. The AI predicts SO₂ production based on boiler conditions and dynamically allocates sorbent feed rates both in-furnace and in downstream reactors. These adjustments occur on the order of seconds, far faster than human operators, continually driving the system toward optimal emissions removal. At one power plant, an AI-guided desulfurization control system achieved over 96% autonomous operation of the scrubbers, keeping SO₂ levels within 20 ± 10 mg/Nm³ (well below regulatory limits) while cutting sorbent consumption by ~8%, saving about 40,000 tons of limestone (approximately ¥2 million) per unit annually. This demonstrates how AI can meet strict environmental targets with improved cost-effectiveness and minimal manual intervention.
趋势展望:随着算力提高和工业控制技术的发展,AI正从辅助决策逐步走向闭环控制。先进电厂开始尝试将AI算法直接嵌入到分布式控制系统(DCS)的一次控制回路,实现毫秒级数据采集和自动控制sohu.com。这使锅炉燃烧、汽机调节和脱硫系统能够在无人工干预下保持最优运行。此外,“数字孪生”技术日趋成熟,通过建立锅炉、汽轮机等设备的高保真仿真模型供AI训练和实时校正,进一步提高了控制算法的可靠性。在未来,具有自学习、自适应能力的AI“机组驾驶舱”有望出现——即利用知识图谱将全厂海量设备和工况关联起来,训练AI代理协同控制各系统,实现复杂电站的自主管理siemens-energy.com。虽然完全自主运行的“无人电厂”尚需时日,但眼下AI已显著改善了传统电站的性能,并为更智能的运行模式铺平了道路。
Emerging trends: As computational power grows and industrial control systems evolve, AI is moving from an advisory role to closed-loop control in plant operations. Cutting-edge facilities have begun deploying AI algorithms directly into their distributed control system (DCS) loops, enabling millisecond-level data feedback and autonomous control actions. This development means that boiler combustion, turbine governing, and emission control can be fine-tuned continuously with minimal human input to stay at optimal settings. Additionally, the rise of digital twin technology allows high-fidelity virtual models of boilers, turbines, and other equipment to be used for AI training, scenario simulation, and real-time calibration of control strategies. These twins serve as a sandbox for AI to learn and adapt without risking actual equipment. In the coming years, we may see the advent of AI “autopilots” for power plants – systems that leverage knowledge graphs to map out millions of interconnected components and signals in a plant, and then train multiple AI agents to collaboratively control different subsystems. Industry visionaries, such as those at Siemens Energy, view this approach as key to realizing fully autonomous power stations. While a completely self-driving power plant is still on the horizon, the current trajectory shows AI steadily taking on more decision-making in operations. The achievements to date – from efficiency gains and emissions cuts to reduced downtime – underscore AI’s central role in shaping a smarter, more responsive mode of plant operation.
物联网与智能设备的迅速发展为电站带来了前所未有的数据获取与诊断能力indibloghub.com。现代电厂部署了成千上万个传感器,覆盖锅炉炉膛、汽机振动、发电机定子温度、轴承油膜、烟气成分、输煤皮带等各个环节。这些传感器通过工业以太网、无线网络(包括5G工业专网)或边缘计算网关将海量实时数据汇集起来。边缘计算设备在靠近设备端对数据进行初步处理和AI推理,可以在毫秒级内发现异常并就地采取措施,例如当振动传感器检测到轴承频谱异常时,边缘AI可立即触发润滑或停机指令,以防止故障扩大。这种本地化智能降低了数据传输延迟,并保障了在网络不稳定情况下的运行安全tierpoint.com。与此同时,数据也被发送到云端或集控中心,供更高级的AI模型进一步分析。
The rapid proliferation of IoT and smart devices in power plants has unlocked unprecedented capabilities for real-time monitoring and diagnostics. Today’s plants are instrumented with thousands of sensors measuring everything from boiler flame intensity, steam temperatures and turbine vibrations to generator winding temperatures, feedwater chemistry, coal conveyor speeds, and emissions composition. These sensors feed a continuous stream of data through industrial networks or wireless (even private 5G) networks into both edge and cloud analytics systems. Edge computing devices – essentially on-site industrial computers loaded with AI models – play a crucial role by processing sensor data near the source. They can run inference locally to detect anomalies within milliseconds and even execute control actions without waiting for cloud commands. For example, if a vibration sensor on a turbine bearing shows an abnormal frequency spike, an edge AI system can instantly flag it and initiate protective actions (like adjusting load or alerting maintenance) to prevent damage. By analyzing data directly at the equipment site, such edge AI reduces latency and ensures critical responses even if connectivity to the cloud is slow or intermittent. At the same time, aggregated data from across the plant is sent to central platforms or the cloud where more computationally intensive AI models can perform deeper analysis and optimization.
在智能传感技术支撑下,预测性维护(PdM)正成为电厂运维的新范式。传统的定期检修往往基于运行时间或经验阈值,无法避免过度维护或突发故障m.sohu.com。如今,AI驱动的预测性维护利用历史数据训练异常检测模型和故障预测模型,对设备的多传感器数据进行关联分析。一旦AI模型识别出偏离正常工况的迹象(哪怕是细微变化),便会给出预警和故障部位的可能原因。这使运维团队能够在零部件失效前按需检修,大幅减少非计划停机和次生损害m.sohu.com。例如,针对汽轮机振动的多变量异常检测模型(如基于LSTM神经网络),可检测正常模式下多个测点振动和温度的相关性,一旦相关性被打破即发出综合异常信号m.sohu.com。又如利用概率预测模型估计发电机绝缘老化程度,当预测的剩余寿命降至阈值时提前更换,从而避免突发故障m.sohu.com。由于许多关键设备故障案例有限,业内还采用迁移学习和联邦学习,将不同电厂、不同设备的经验教训迁移到新的模型中,提高模型的鲁棒性m.sohu.com。实践证明,应用AI的预测性维护可将电厂的维护成本降低约30%,设备可用率提高多达20%m.sohu.com。更重要的是,一些大型发电企业通过在几十台机组上部署数百个AI模型,实现了显著收益:热耗降低1%~3%,强迫停机次数显著下降,每年节省运维成本约6000万美元,并减少碳排放约160万吨m.sohu.com。这些成果相当于减少30万辆汽车上路所产生的排放,充分展示了AI对电厂可靠性和性能的变革潜力m.sohu.com。
Powered by ubiquitous sensing, predictive maintenance (PdM) has emerged as a new paradigm for power plant asset management. Traditional maintenance strategies relied on fixed schedules or simple alarms and often led to either excessive maintenance or unexpected breakdowns. In contrast, AI-driven predictive maintenance employs historical and real-time data to train models for anomaly detection and failure prediction, enabling a shift to condition-based maintenance. These AI models (e.g. neural networks, isolation forest, etc.) analyze multivariate sensor inputs together, learning the normal patterns of equipment behavior. When subtle deviations from normal arise – even those imperceptible to humans – the AI flags an incipient issue and can often diagnose the likely cause. This allows maintenance teams to fix issues proactively before a failure occurs, dramatically reducing unplanned outages and secondary damage. For instance, an LSTM-based multivariate model monitoring a turbine might track the tight correlation between temperatures, pressures, and vibrations under healthy conditions; if that correlation degrades, the model outputs an aggregated anomaly signal indicating potential trouble. Similarly, probabilistic failure models can predict the remaining useful life of components (like generator insulation) and schedule their replacement just in time. To tackle the challenge of limited failure examples in training data, techniques like transfer learning and federated learning are used to leverage knowledge from similar equipment across multiple plants, improving the AI’s robustness. In practice, implementing AI-driven PdM has delivered impressive results: studies show maintenance costs can be reduced by ~30% and equipment availability increased by up to 20%. One large US utility, for example, deployed over 400 AI models across 67 coal and gas units, achieving heat rate improvements of 1–3% and significantly cutting forced outages. This translated into roughly $60 million in annual savings and 1.6 million tons CO₂ reduction– equivalent to removing 300,000 cars’ emissions – underscoring the transformative impact of AI on plant reliability and performance.
除了保障设备本身,智能巡检机器人和无人机等智能装备也在电厂运维中崭露头角。厂区内的地面巡检机器人可搭载红外热像仪、可见光摄像头和气体泄漏检测器,在AI算法驱动下自动巡检锅炉本体、管道阀门、电气柜等设备energychina.press。它们能够识别指针式仪表读数、检测异音异味,并将异常情况实时报告。无人机则用于检查高耸的烟囱、冷却塔和锅炉炉膛内部,通过高清摄像和AI图像识别发现裂纹、结焦等缺陷,提高了巡检的覆盖面和安全性。当这些智能装备采集的数据与电厂数字孪生平台结合时,运维人员可以在三维可视化界面上直观地看到设备健康状态,实现远程巡检与专家诊断。这不仅降低了人员在高温、高压环境下工作的风险,也提高了巡检效率和频次。总体而言,由传感器、边缘计算和智能巡检装置构成的神经网络正在电厂内部形成,使传统电站向“无人值守”的智慧工厂更进一步发展e.huawei.com,news.gmw.cn。
In addition to safeguarding major equipment, a new generation of intelligent inspection devices – such as robots and drones – is enhancing plant maintenance practices. Ground-based inspection robots are now used in some facilities, equipped with infrared cameras, optical zoom lenses, and gas leak detectors. Guided by AI algorithms, these robots autonomously patrol around boilers, pipelines, valve racks, and electrical rooms to perform routine checks. They can read analog gauge dials via computer vision, listen for acoustic anomalies, sniff for gas leaks, and report irregularities to operators in real time. Drones, on the other hand, are deployed to inspect tall structures like stacks and cooling towers, or even to hover inside boiler furnaces for a close look at tube conditions. Using high-resolution imagery and AI-based image analysis, drones can detect cracks, hotspots, or ash buildup in places that are hard or dangerous for humans to reach. The data from these smart inspection devices, when integrated into a plant’s digital twin or asset management platform, provides maintenance teams with an interactive 3D view of equipment health. Engineers can virtually inspect and diagnose issues from the control room, reducing the need for hazardous on-site manual inspections. This fusion of sensors, edge AI, and intelligent inspection gadgets effectively forms a nervous system for the power plant, moving it closer to a “minimal manpower” maintenance model. The result is not only improved safety – by keeping staff out of high-risk areas – but also higher inspection frequency and consistency, which further improves reliability.
全球范围内,多家工业巨头和科技公司正积极布局智能电站相关产品和解决方案。通用电气(GE)作为先行者之一,在2016年推出了针对燃煤和燃气电厂的数字化解决方案套件——“Digital Power Plant for Steam”,基于其工业物联网平台Predixinformationweek.com。该套件包含锅炉优化(通过AI改进燃烧控制和吹灰时机)、煤质分析(实时测定煤炭水分等特性并调整燃烧策略)和全厂性能优化(监控关键性能指标,缩小实际与理想运行的差距)等模块informationweek.com。GE曾披露,这些数字化应用可使电厂效率提升约1.5%、碳排放降低3%,每发一兆瓦电可减少约6.7万吨煤耗informationweek.com。GE还提供资产性能管理(APM)软件,利用AI进行设备健康评估和寿命预测,在意大利Chivasso电厂等项目成功复运中发挥了作用informationweek.com。西门子能源(Siemens Energy)则致力于构建“自律电厂”的蓝图,强调通过知识图谱和数字孪生技术赋能AI代理,实现电厂的自主优化控制siemens-energy.com。其“Power 4.0”数字化方案结合3D可视化和数据分析,可提升电厂可靠性、可用率和效率m.bjx.com.cn。西门子的解决方案还包括远程监控诊断中心,利用AI算法对机组性能体检,提前预警潜在问题,并通过大数据优化燃料和检修资源配置,实现降本增效m.bjx.com.cn。此外,西门子推出了开放式物联网操作系统MindSphere以及新近的工业AI平台,用于整合电厂海量数据并部署AI应用。值得一提的是,**三菱重工(原MHPS)开发了“TOMONI”数字平台,提供从实时监控、故障诊断到优化控制的一揽子AI解决方案m.bjx.com.cn。其组件状态监测工具(CCMT)**等产品利用多年积累的锅炉压力部件失效数据库,为客户实施风险分级的预防性维护changeinpower.com。MHPS报告称,通过这些AI驱动的维护项目,所监测的55台锅炉压力部件故障率在二十年间大幅下降changeinpower.com。
Across the globe, leading industry players and tech companies are actively developing smart power plant solutions and cutting-edge products. General Electric (GE) was an early mover, launching its “Digital Power Plant for Steam” suite in 2016 atop the Predix industrial IoT platform. This suite included applications for boiler optimization (using AI to improve combustion tuning and sootblowing schedules), coal analyzer (feeding real-time coal quality data like moisture into the combustion control), and plant optimization (tracking key KPIs to close the gap between actual and ideal performance). GE claimed that its digital solutions could boost plant efficiency by about 1.5% and cut CO₂ emissions by 3%, translating to roughly 67,000 tons of coal saved per gigawatt-hour over time. GE also offers Asset Performance Management (APM) software that leverages AI for equipment health monitoring and life prediction – credited with successes like restoring the idle Chivasso power plant in Italy through predictive insights. Siemens Energy, on the other hand, is charting a vision of autonomous power plants, highlighting the use of knowledge graphs and digital twins to enable AI controllers for complex power station management. Siemens’ “Power 4.0” digital initiative integrates 3D visualization with advanced analytics to improve plant reliability, availability, and efficiency. Part of Siemens’ offering is setting up remote monitoring and diagnostic centers that employ AI algorithms to evaluate unit performance, detect nascent issues, and optimize fuel and maintenance scheduling via big data – delivering cost savings and efficiency gains for clients. Moreover, Siemens provides its open IoT operating system MindSphere and related AI platforms to ingest the vast data from plants and deploy custom AI applications. It also recently introduced AI-powered assistants and digital twin solutions (in partnership with platforms like NVIDIA Omniverse) for real-time operational guidance and training simulations. Notably, Mitsubishi Power (formerly MHPS) has developed the “TOMONI” digital platform, offering a suite of AI solutions for real-time monitoring, diagnostics, and optimization. Mitsubishi’s tools such as the Component Condition Monitoring Tool (CCMT) combine decades of failure data on boiler pressure parts with live plant data to implement risk-based maintenance programsm. The company reports that such AI-driven preventive maintenance has dramatically reduced pressure-part failure rates across dozens of boilers over two decades.
除设备制造商外,工业自动化和软件领域的公司也纷纷推出电厂智能运维产品。ABB的Ability™平台提供了面向电机和发电机的预测性维护解决方案,利用AI算法分析实时工况数据,识别异常并预测故障发生aimagazine.com。ABB还发布了Genix APM套件,引入“APM Copilot”AI助手帮助优化资产绩效和能效。施耐德电气和霍尼韦尔等也在各自的DCS/SCADA系统中集成了AI模块,用于过程优化和故障诊断。比如霍尼韦尔的Experion系列控制系统通过与其Forge平台连接,实现了发电厂关键设备的AI健康监测。艾默生(Emerson)的Ovation控制系统则结合机器学习模型,用于调优汽锅协调控制和热力系统性能。许多新创公司也进入该领域,例如SparkCognition、Uptake等提供专门的AI预测分析服务,协助电厂实现降耗和防故障。国内方面,主机厂和ICT企业共同推动智慧电厂建设:上海电气等设备集团不仅提供汽轮机、锅炉硬件,还成立了远程监测与诊断中心,开发自主的数字化电厂系统m.bjx.com.cn。以上海电气为例,其燃机公司建立了覆盖产品全生命周期的数据模型和三维设计交付体系,并在2017年成立了燃机远程监控和仿真测试中心,利用大数据改进控制逻辑,为“智能电厂”建设奠定基础m.bjx.com.cn。哈电、东电等也在研发自有的智能控制系统。互联网厂商方面,华为推出了面向能源行业的智能电站解决方案,强调“一个网络、一个AI中心、一个平台”的数字基础架构e.huawei.com。该方案采用5G工业网、云计算和AI模型,为传统火电、新能源电站提供智慧安全、智能运行和智能维护功能,打造无人值守、低碳高效的电厂生态e.huawei.com。华为联合多家合作伙伴实现了六大智慧应用,包括智慧施工、安全、生产运营、设备运维等,目标是建设无人巡检、少人值守的智能电厂e.huawei.com。百度则依托其云AI平台,与电力企业合作开发智能优化系统(如前文提及的冷端优化和脱硫优化案例),输出“AI+电力”的解决方案。阿里云、腾讯云等也推出了能源AI平台,将物联网、大数据与AI算法结合,用于发电侧的调优和管理。整体而言,无论国际还是国内市场,“数字化+智能化”已成为电力装备厂商和软件企业竞相投入的方向,新产品层出不穷。例如,2024年移动通信大会上华为发布的电力智能配电解决方案(IDS)也体现了能源领域智能化的发展热潮solarquarter.com.
Beyond the OEMs, industrial automation and software companies have also introduced solutions for smart power plant operations. ABB’s Ability™ platform, for example, includes predictive maintenance tools for motors and generators that use AI algorithms to analyze real-time operating data, identify anomalies, and forecast failures. ABB’s recently launched Genix APM suite even features an “APM Copilot” AI assistant to help optimize asset performance and energy efficiency. Schneider Electric and Honeywell have similarly integrated AI into their control systems; Honeywell’s Experion and Forge platforms enable AI-driven health monitoring of critical plant equipment. Emerson has augmented its Ovation control system with machine learning models to finetune boiler-turbine coordination and thermal performance. Numerous startups are entering this niche as well – firms like SparkCognition, Uptake, and others offer specialized AI analytics services to help power plants reduce fuel consumption and predict failures. In China, power equipment manufacturers and ICT companies are jointly driving the development of smart power plants. Traditional equipment giants such as Shanghai Electric not only supply turbines and boilers but have also established remote monitoring and diagnostics centers, developing their own digital plant systems. Shanghai Electric, for instance, built a full lifecycle data model and 3D design delivery system for its gas turbines, and in 2017 launched a remote monitoring & simulation center to leverage big data for control logic improvements – laying a solid foundation for “intelligent plant” capabilities. Other major state-owned firms (Harbin Electric, Dongfang Electric, etc.) are likewise working on proprietary smart control systems. On the tech side, Huawei offers an Intelligent Power Generation solution that emphasizes a digital infrastructure of “one network, one AI center, one platform”. Huawei’s solution leverages 5G connectivity, cloud computing, and AI models to provide smart safety, operations, and maintenance for both conventional and renewable power stations – aiming to create an unmanned, efficient, low-carbon power plant ecosystem. In collaboration with industry partners, Huawei has developed six major intelligent applications (covering smart construction, security, operations, maintenance, etc.) with the goal of enabling unattended operation and automated inspection in plants. Baidu, as noted earlier, has applied its cloud AI platform to real-world power plant optimization projects (e.g. smart cooling and FGD control), and is packaging these as “AI + Power” solutions for the sector. Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud have also launched energy AI platforms that combine IoT data, big data analytics, and machine learning for power generation optimization and management. Overall, the “digital + intelligent” trend is a focal point for both global and Chinese vendors. New products are emerging rapidly – for example, at MWC 2024 Huawei unveiled an Intelligent Distribution Solution (IDS) for power systems– illustrating the accelerating wave of innovation in energy sector AI.
展望未来五年,AI与智能设备在电站中的应用将进一步深化,并引领电厂运营方式的变革。首先,电厂运行的自主化水平将显著提高。得益于更完善的知识图谱构建和联邦学习,不同子系统的AI控制器将能更好地协同,朝着少人化、无人化值守方向迈进news.gmw.cn,e.huawei.com。可以预见,新建和改造电站会引入“AI值班工程师”,很多日常调节由AI自动完成,运行人员更多扮演监护和决策支持角色。其次,数字孪生与仿真将成为标配。几乎每台关键设备都会有对应的数字孪生模型,既用于实时优化也用于培训和应急演练。通过模拟各种工况和事故场景,AI能够提前学习最佳应对策略,提高电厂对负荷波动和异常情况的弹性。第三,边缘计算与5G通信的普及将令数据采集与控制更及时可靠。边缘AI装置将无处不在,现场设备的智能反应速度将以毫秒计,使电厂具备准瞬时的响应能力。这对于电网频繁波动、深度调峰的场景尤为重要,AI将帮助火电机组实现快速启停和负荷爬坡,同时保持设备的安全裕度news.gmw.cn。第四,预测性维护将在业内全面铺开。随着实践经验和数据积累,各发电集团将完善设备健康数据库,AI模型预测故障的准确率和提前量都会提升。不仅大型机组,辅机设备(如给水泵、引风机等)的预测性维护也将普及,从而整体降低非计划停运率,提高发电可用性。我们预计,到2025-2030年,许多电厂会将强迫停运率降低一半以上,从当前的每年几次降低到接近零的水平。第五,AI技术本身的进步(如更强的深度学习模型、AutoML自动化建模、专家系统融合等)将带来新的应用场景。例如,基于自然语言处理的大型语言模型有望用于电厂知识库和智能决策支持,运行人员可以通过对话式AI查询复杂问题并获得优化建议,这将加速知识传承和决策效率。
In the next five years, we expect AI and smart equipment adoption in power plants to deepen and fundamentally reshape operations. Autonomy in plant control will increase markedly. With more robust knowledge models and federated learning sharing insights across fleets, multiple AI controllers will coordinate different subsystems, moving plants toward minimal staffing and even “dark” (lights-out) operation. New plants (and retrofits) will likely feature “AI operators” handling routine adjustments, with human staff transitioning to supervisory and strategic decision-making roles. Secondly, digital twins and simulation will become standard tools. Virtually every critical asset will have a digital twin used for both real-time optimization and training/emergency drills. By simulating myriad scenarios (load swings, equipment failures, extreme transients), AI agents can learn optimal responses in advance, thus improving the plant’s resilience to grid fluctuations and unexpected events. Third, the ubiquity of edge computing and 5G will make data acquisition and control actions even more instantaneous and reliable. Edge AI devices will be everywhere on site, bringing reaction times down to milliseconds and giving the plant near-instant reflexes. This is especially crucial as grids demand more flexible operation; AI will enable thermal units to cycle on/off more rapidly and ramp loads faster to complement renewables, all while keeping equipment within safe stress limits. Fourth, predictive maintenance will be fully mainstream. With growing experience and aggregated data, plant operators will refine their equipment health databases, and AI failure prediction will become more accurate and further ahead of time. Not only major units but also auxiliary systems (feed pumps, fans, etc.) will be covered by PdM programs, thereby drastically cutting unplanned outage rates and boosting overall availability. By around 2025–2030, it’s plausible that many plants will halve their forced outage rates – going from a handful of incidents per year to near-zero in some cases. Fifth, advances in AI technology itself (more powerful deep learning models, AutoML for easier model building, hybrid AI with expert rules, etc.) will unlock new applications. For example, large language models (natural language AI) could be harnessed for plant knowledge management and intelligent decision support; operators might query a conversational AI assistant to troubleshoot complex scenarios or get optimization tips, thus speeding up knowledge transfer and decision-making across the organization.
这些趋势将协同作用,使电站的运营效率和效益大幅提升。机组热效率有望在已有优化基础上再提高1-3个百分点,这来源于AI更精准的控制(如降低过量空气系数、减少启停损失等)mdpi.com, m.sohu.com。更少的非计划停机意味着等效可用率提升、维修成本下降,从而提高发电量和收益。AI优化还将降低污染物排放强度,每千瓦时电量的排放可能进一步下降10-20%,减轻环保压力。随着AI帮助传统电厂实现灵活快速的调度,电厂将能更有效地参与电网调峰和辅助服务市场,获得新的收益来源。在安全方面,AI对异常的提前感知和自动处置能力将减少事故和人员风险,提高电厂本质安全水平。总之,未来几年内,AI赋能的智能电站将在效率、可靠性、环保和安全性等各个维度实现质的飞跃,为传统发电产业注入新的生命力。
Collectively, these trends will yield substantial improvements in operational efficiency and economics. Thermal efficiency of units is expected to increase a further 1–3 percentage points beyond current optimized levels, thanks to more precise AI control (for instance, minimizing excess air, optimizing startup/shutdown sequences to cut losses, etc.). Fewer unplanned outages translate to higher equivalent availability, lower maintenance expenses, and consequently greater energy output and revenue. AI optimizations will also drive down emissions intensity – pollutants emitted per kWh generated could drop another 10–20%, easing compliance with tightening environmental regulations. With AI enabling faster and more flexible dispatch, plants can participate more effectively in grid load-balancing and ancillary service markets, unlocking new revenue streams (e.g. compensation for rapid ramping or frequency support). On the safety front, AI’s ability to foresee issues and take automatic corrective action will reduce the risk of accidents and protect personnel, elevating the inherent safety of operations. In summary, the coming years will likely witness a qualitative leap in the performance of power stations empowered by AI – across efficiency, reliability, environmental and safety metrics – reinvigorating the conventional power generation sector with new vitality.
面对AI与智能设备的新浪潮,电厂技术人员和采购决策者在规划采购时需综合考虑效益和风险,为企业创造最大价值。以下是几点建议:
a. 明确需求与可行性:在采购智能化方案前,首先应识别本电厂的主要痛点。例如,是锅炉效率偏低、启停损耗大,还是设备故障频发、运维成本高?针对不同问题选择相应的AI应用模块。要评估AI方案在现场的技术可行性,了解其对控制系统、IT基础设施的要求,以及与现有系统的兼容性。
b. 从小规模试点入手:建议先选取关键设备或单台机组开展试点项目,验证AI解决方案的实际效果和ROI。例如在一台机组上部署锅炉优化和预测性维护系统,运行一段时间评估节煤率、故障减少情况m.sohu.com。通过“小步快跑”模式,在积累成功经验后再逐步扩展到全厂,以降低一次性投资和实施风险。
c. 选择可靠的供应商与开放架构:优先考虑行业经验丰富、案例验证充分的供应商。评估厂商提供的算法模型是否经过电厂工况验证,其准确率和稳定性如何。有条件的话,可要求进行现场测试或参考其他电厂的实施结果。技术架构上,尽量选择开放接口、支持标准协议的系统,避免过度依赖单一供应商导致锁定风险。确保新系统能与现有DCS、SIS及MIS系统顺畅对接,数据互通。
d. 重视人员培训与变革管理:引入AI之后,需要培养或引进既懂电厂工艺又懂数据科学的复合型人才indibloghub.com。对现有运行和检修人员进行培训,使其掌握新系统的使用方法和基本原理,减少对AI决策的不信任。管理层应推动文化转变,鼓励数据驱动的决策模式,充分利用AI建议,同时保留人为复核机制以确保安全。
e. 考虑总体成本与收益:智能化改造往往前期投入较高,包括硬件(传感器、服务器)、软件license和实施服务等indibloghub.com。采购时要综合考虑全生命周期成本,包括后续的维护支持费用、算法更新费用等。对预期收益进行量化,例如节约的燃料成本、减少的停机损失、减排带来的碳收益等,以评估投资回报周期。
f. 网络安全与数据隐私:连接大量传感器和引入AI控制的同时,也扩大了网络攻击的潜在面。必须确保供应商提供的系统具有严格的网络安全防护,如加密通讯、权限控制和异常入侵检测。建议在项目设计阶段就将安全要求纳入招标规范utilitydive.com。此外要明确数据归属和隐私策略,防止敏感运营数据泄露或被不当使用。
g. 风险缓释策略:在部署AI闭环控制时,应设置完善的冗余和切换机制,以防止算法失灵或传感器故障导致控制失稳sohu.com。例如,保持人工操作的后备选项,一旦AI输出超出预期范围可立即切换为人工或停用AI控制。采购合同中也可约定关键绩效指标(KPI)的达成和责任分担,确保供应商在效果未达标时提供支持和改进。
In light of the AI and smart equipment boom, power plant engineers and procurement teams must carefully balance benefits and risks when planning purchases. Key recommendations include:
a. Define Needs and Feasibility: Before procuring any AI solution, identify the primary pain points of your plant. Is the goal to improve boiler heat rate and reduce startup fuel, or to minimize unplanned outages and maintenance costs? Different problems call for different AI modules. Assess the technical feasibility of proposed solutions at your site – understand their requirements for instrumentation, IT infrastructure, and compatibility with your existing systems.
b. Start with Pilot Projects: It is wise to begin with a small-scale pilot on a critical piece of equipment or a single unit to validate the solution’s effectiveness and ROI. For example, deploy an AI combustion optimizer and predictive maintenance system on one boiler-turbine unit and measure performance improvements (fuel savings, reduction in alarms or downtime) over a trial period. Use these learnings to refine the approach before scaling up plant-wide. This phased adoption mitigates upfront investment and implementation risks.Choose Reputable Vendors and Open Architectures: Opt for solution providers with proven industry experience and reference projects in similar power plants. Scrutinize whether their AI models have been validated on real plant data and how accurate and stable they are. Whenever possible, request on-site demonstrations or speak with reference clients to gauge results. Technically, favor systems built on open interfaces and standard protocols to avoid vendor lock-in. The solution should integrate smoothly with your existing DCS, SIS, and data historians to ensure interoperability and data flow. Avoid proprietary black boxes that might impede flexibility or future upgrades.
c. Invest in Training and Change Management: Introducing AI will require new skill sets. Plan to train or hire personnel who understand both power engineering and data science.
d. Provide comprehensive training for operators and maintenance staff on the new tools so they understand how to interpret AI outputs and respond appropriately. There may be initial skepticism – management should promote a culture that embraces data-driven decision-making, while still maintaining human oversight for critical decisions. Encourage your team to treat AI as a decision-support partner rather than a “black magic” box.Consider Total Cost and ROI: Smart upgrades often involve substantial upfront costs, including sensors, networking, servers, software licenses, and integration services.
e. Take a holistic view of total lifecycle cost in procurement decisions, factoring in ongoing subscription fees, software updates, and support contracts. At the same time, quantify the expected benefits – fuel cost reduction, avoided outage costs, manpower savings, emissions compliance benefits, etc. – to estimate the payback period. Ensure that the investment aligns with your plant’s financial and operational goals, and prioritize use-cases with the strongest business case.Address Cybersecurity and Data Privacy: Connecting more devices and granting AI influence over control loops inevitably expands the cyber-attack surface. Verify that any system you purchase adheres to strict cybersecurity standards – encrypted communications, role-based access control, continuous vulnerability patching, and intrusion detection features are a must.
f. It’s advisable to include cybersecurity requirements from the design phase and as part of vendor evaluation. Additionally, clarify data ownership and privacy policies: your plant’s operational data is highly sensitive, so ensure it won’t be exposed or misused. If using cloud-based AI, consider where data is stored and how it’s protected.Mitigate Operational Risks: When deploying AI in closed-loop control, implement robust fallback and redundancy mechanisms to maintain safety. For example, ensure there is a manual override or fail-safe that can take over if the AI outputs aberrant commands or if sensors feed incorrect data.
g. Run extensive testing in simulation before enabling any autonomous control, and perhaps start with advisory mode (AI gives recommendations) before moving to automatic mode. In procurement contracts, define clear performance KPIs and service level agreements – for instance, expected efficiency gains or reliability improvements – and delineate responsibilities. This holds vendors accountable to support and fine-tune the system if outcomes are below expectations.
通过以上措施,技术人员和采购方可以在拥抱AI和智能设备的同时,有效管控风险,实现收益最大化。未来的智能电站建设是一项系统工程,既需要前瞻性的规划部署,也离不开稳健的执行和持续的优化。谨慎地选择方案和合作伙伴,积极培养团队能力,并始终将安全可靠放在首位,才能让AI真正为电厂运营赋能,同时避免潜在陷阱。在规划和采购过程中保持审慎与灵活并重,电厂将能够平稳地踏上智能化转型之路,在未来竞争中立于不败之地。 作者: HK Evergreen Energy Ltd, 版权所有,侵权必究, 2025年6月30日
By following these guidelines, plant teams can embrace AI and smart devices while keeping risks under control and maximizing value. Building the smart power plant of the future is a system-wide endeavor – it requires forward-looking planning, prudent execution, and continuous refinement. With careful selection of solutions and partners, strong focus on workforce readiness, and an unwavering priority on safety and reliability, AI can truly empower power plant operations without falling into its potential pitfalls. A balanced approach of caution and agility during planning and procurement will allow plants to navigate the intelligent transformation smoothly, positioning them to thrive in the evolving energy landscape. Author: HK Evergreen Energy Ltd, All Rights Reserved. 30th Jun, 2025